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影响因子：4.848

DOI码：10.3390/rs11040383

发表刊物：Remote Sensing

刊物所在地：美国

关键字：convective storm; geostationary satellite; numerical weather prediction; nowcasting;  random forests

摘要：Accurate and prior identification of local severe storm systems in pre-convection environments using geostationary satellite imagery measurements is a challenging task. Methodologies for “convective initiation” identification have already been developed and explored for operational nowcasting applications; however, warning of such convective systems using the new generation of geostationary satellite imagery measurements in pre-convection environments is still not well studied. In this investigation, the Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithm is used to develop a predictive statistical model for tracking and identifying three different types of convective storm systems (weak, medium, and severe) over East Asia by combining spatially-temporally collocated Himawari-8 (H08) measurements and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecast data. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) gridded product is used as a benchmark to train the predictive models based on a sample-balance technique which can adjust or balance the samples of three different convection types to avoid over-fitting any type of dataset. Variables such as brightness temperatures (BTs) from H08 water vapor absorption bands (6.2 μm, 6.9 μm and 7.3 μm) and Total Precipitable Water (TPW) from NWP show relatively high ranks in the predictive model training. These sensitive variables are closely associated with convectively dominated precipitation areas, indicating the importance of predictors from both H08 and NWP data. The final optimal RF model is achieved with an accuracy of 0.79 for classification of all convective storm systems, while the Probability of Detection (POD) of this model for severe and medium convections can reach 0.66 and 0.70, respectively. Two typical sudden convective storm cases in the warm season of 2018 tracked by this algorithm are described, and results indicate that the H08 and NWP based statistical model using the RF algorithm is capable of capturing local burst convective storm systems about 1–2 h earlier than the outbreak of heavy rainfall.

全部作者：Liu Z. , Min M. , Sun F. , Di D. , Ai Y. , et al.,Di D., Xue Y., Li J. , Bai W., Zhang P.,Xue, Y. , Li, J. , Bai, W. , & Zhang, P.

第一作者：Zijing Liu,Di Di

通讯作者：Min, M. ,李俊

论文编号：10.3390/rs11040383

学科门类：遥感

一级学科：工程技术

卷号：11

期号：4

ISSN号：2072-4292

是否译文：否

发表时间：2019-02-13