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- 基本信息
- 个人简介
- 近期主要论著
- 近期科研项目
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姓 名: 陆尔
性 别: 男
职 称: 教授
最高学历: 博士
所属系部: 气候学系
毕业院校: 亚利桑那大学
研究方向: 气候系统与气候变化
办公地点: 气象楼403室
邮 箱: elu@nuist.edu.cn
主要研究领域: 气候监测检测（季风、干旱、极端事件等）的理论和方法；极端天气气候（干旱、雨涝、热浪、低温等）的形成维持机理；全球变暖及其对水份循环过程的影响。
教育背景:
1984 学士，南京大学，大气科学 1987 硕士，南京大学，大气科学 2005 博士，亚利桑那大学，大气科学
工作经历:
1987.8-1995.3 中国气象科学研究院，助理研究员 1995.4-1999.8 国家气候中心，副研究员 1995.6-1995.8 日本气象研究所，双边交流 1997.11-1998.7 香港城市大学，访问研究 2005.10-2006.4 亚利桑那大学，博士后研究 2006.5-2010.10 爱荷华州立大学，研究和教学 2009.12-2010.5 NCAR气候分析部，客座研究（合作：Kevin Trenberth） 2010.11-2012.5 NOAA气候预测中心，研究和业务（合作：Wayne Higgins） 2011.4- 南京信息工程大学，教授
学术和社会服务:
待补充
1、喜欢用所学的数学(微积分)和物理(概念)，解决业务上的一些关键技术；追求理论和方法上的创新。
2、原创提出了逐日监测干旱的WAP方法(GRL 2009; CD 2014)、时空监测评价暴雨和高温等极端事件的EIDR方法(JC 2017)、全球统一的季风爆发指数(JC 2004)、冬夏统一的季风强度指数(JC 1999)、分析旱涝事件中水汽与冷空气协同作用的方法(JGR 2010, 2011, 2014)、评估非线性问题中不同影响因子相对重要性的方法(JHM 2010; CD 2020; JC 2021)、等。
3、监测干旱的方法和监测评价极端事件的方法，被中国气象局评为 “十三五” 以来气象行业的 “优秀” 成果。
4、作为关键技术和核心内容，这两个方法目前已支撑8个国家标准和行业标准。在其引领下，已有许多地方标准出台。
5、成果已应用于国家气候中心的多个业务系统，包括《干旱监测评估业务系统》，《极端天气气候监测检测业务系统》，《气象灾害风险管理系统-气候变化影响评估与服务》等。
6、监测评价的结果，已用于《中国气候公报》、《气候影响评价》、《气候通》、多个决策服务的材料、及数十份 “国家气候标志” 的评估报告。
7、成果已应用于中国气象局预报司下发的《区域性重要过程监测和评价业务规定》，它指导全国各省份对暴雨、高温、干旱、沙尘等不同种类的灾害进行监测评价及历史排位。
8、测算显示，在国家层面、各省份及地市的防灾减灾中，这些成果已产生了十分可观的经济效益和社会效益。
9、在2022夏季的高温干旱事件中，WAP方法和EIDR方法均有应用，成功地进行了干旱的逐日滚动监测、高温极端事件的监测及历史排位第一的确认。
部分论文：
Yuan D, Lu E* (2024): Influence of early spring Arctic sea ice on midsummer precipitation in Northeast China: The intermediate links and temporal-spatial channels. Journal of Geophysical Research, DOI: 10.1029/2023JD040640.
Liu R, Yuan D, Lu EM, Li D, Li H, Wang H, Lu E* (2024): The 2022 summer heat wave over China: An analysis of the severity and dominance from the frequency and intensity of high temperature. International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.8585.
Li Z, Lu E*, Tu J, Yuan D (2024): Historical and future changes of meteorological-hydrological compound drought in China. Atmosphere, 3326727.
Hao J, Yuan D, Zhao X, Long H, Ling Q, Lu E, Tu J, Fan C (2024): An analysis about the linkage between precipitation and atmosphere stratification at climate scale. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-024-07568-6.
Li Z, Yang Q, Lu E*, Ma Z (2023): Causes of a typical southern flood and northern drought event in 2015 over eastern China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2342-0.
Tu J, Yuan D, Lu E* (2023): Dominance patterns specified by the ideal gas equation: Example of examining simultaneous multivariate relation with scale analysis approach. Atmosphere, 14, 293. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020293.
Yuan D, Hao J, Lu E*, Dai W, Gao R, Zhao C, Zhang Q, Zhao H (2022):
The 2014 severe drought over northeast China and its comparison with
droughts over the southern regions: A perspective from synergic effects
of water vapour and cold air. International Journal of Climatology, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7776.
Zhang W, Lu E*, Tu J, Chao Q, Wang H (2022): Interannual variability of summer hotness in China: Synergistic effect of frequency and intensity of high temperature. Atmosphere, 13, 819. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13050819.
Yuan D, Lu E*, Dai W, Chao Q, Wang H, Li S (2022): The ice-and-snow tourism in Harbin met its waterloo: Analysis of the causes of the warm winter with reduced snowfall in 2018/2019. Atmosphere, 13, 1091. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13071091.
Hao J, Lu E* (2022): The consistent variations of precipitable water and surface water vapor pressure at interannual and long-term scales: An examination using reanalysis. Atmosphere, 13, 1350. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13091350.
Hao J, Lu E* (2022): Variation of relative humidity as seen through linking water vapor to air temperature: An assessment of interannual variations in the near-surface atmosphere. Atmosphere, 13, 1171. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13081171.
Lu E*,
Hao J, Yang K (2021): Temporal-spatial variations of atmospheric static
stability: A comparison of the influences from temperature and its
vertical difference. Journal of Climate, 34(12), 4661-4674,DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0615.1.
Tu J, Lu E* (2021):
Understanding the uncertainty of the long-term precipitation trend
under global warming through the water cycle. International Journal of
Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.7463.
Hao J, Lu E* (2021): The quantitative comparison of contributions from vapor and temperature to midsummer precipitation in China under the influence of spring heat source over Tibet Plateau. International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.7333.
Lu E*, Tu J (2020): Relative importance of surface air temperature and density to interannual variations in monthly surface atmospheric pressure. International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.6730.
Tu J, Lu E* (2020): Relative importance of water vapor and air temperature in the interannual variation of the seasonal precipitation: a comparison of the physical and statistical methods. Climate Dynamics, 54:3655–3670, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05197-3.
Ma L, Zhang G, Lu E* (2018): Using the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree to improve the delineation of hourly rain areas during the summer from Advanced Himawari Imager Data. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19, 761-776, DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-17-0109.1.
Li H, Zhai P, Chen Y, Lu E (2018): Potential influence of the East Asia–Pacific teleconnection pattern on persistent precipitation in South China: Implications of atypical Yangtze River Valley cases. Weather and Forecasting, 33, 267-282, DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-17-0011.1.
Lu E*, Zhao W, Zou X, Ye D, Zhao C, Zhang Q (2017): Temporal-spatial monitoring of extreme precipitation event: Determining simultaneously the time period it lasts and the geographic region it affects. Journal of Climate, 30, 6123-6132, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0105.1.
Li H, Zhai P, Lu E*, Zhao W, Chen Y, Wang H (2017): Changes in temporal concentration property of summer precipitation in China during 1961–2010 based on a new index. Journal of Meteorological Research, 31: 336-349, doi: 10.1007/s13351-017-6020-y.
Lu E*, Ding Y, Zhou B, Zou X, Chen X, Cai W, Zhang Q, Chen H (2016): Is the interannual variability of summer rainfall in China dominated by precipitation frequency or intensity? An analysis of relative importance. Climate Dynamics, 47: 67-77, DOI 10.1007/s00382-015-2822-8.
Liu J, Wang H, Lu E*, Kumar A (2016): Decadal modulation of East China winter precipitation by ENSO. Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-3427-6.
Lu E*, Chen H, Tu J, Song J, Zou X, Zhou B, Li H, Cai W, Chen Y, Chen X, Zhang Q, Chen H, Jiang Z (2015): The nonlinear relationship between summer precipitation in China and the sea surface temperature in preceding seasons: A statistical demonstration. Journal of Geophysical Research, 120(23), DOI:10.1002/2015JD024030.
Lu E*, Zhao W, Gong L, Chen H, Wang H, Li X, Song J, Tu J, Higgins RW, Halpert MS (2015): Determining starting time and duration of extreme precipitation events based on intensity. Climate Research, 63:31-41, doi: 10.3354/cr01280.
Lu E*, Cai W, Jiang Z, Zhang Q, Zhang C, Higgins RW, Halpert MS (2014): The day-to-day monitoring of the 2011 severe drought in China. Climate Dynamics, 43:1-9, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1987-2.
Lu E*, Liu S, Luo Y, Zhao W, Li H, Chen H, Zeng Y, Liu P, Wang X, Higgins RW, Halpert MS (2014): The atmospheric anomalies associated with the drought over the Yangtze River basin during spring 2011. Journal of Geophysical Research, 119, doi:10.1002/2014JD021558.
Lu E*, Zeng Y, Luo Y, Ding Y, Zhao W, Liu S, Gong L, Jiang Y, Jiang Z, Chen H (2014): Changes of summer precipitation in China: The dominance of frequency and intensity and linkage with changes in moisture and air temperature. Journal of Geophysical Research, 119, doi:10.1002/2014JD022456.
Lu E*, Luo Y, Zhang R, Wu Q, Liu L (2011): Regional atmospheric anomalies responsible for the 2009-2010 severe drought in China. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, D21114, doi:10.1029/2011JD015706.
Lu E*, Takle ES, Manoj J (2010): The relationships between climatic and hydrological changes in the Upper Mississippi River Basin: A SWAT and multi-GCM study. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 11:437-451, doi:10.1175/2009JHM1150.1.
Lu E*, Takle ES (2010): Concurrent variations of water vapor and temperature corresponding to the interannual variation of precipitation in the North American Regional Reanalysis. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D11101, doi:10.1029/2009JD012956.
Lu E*, Takle ES (2010): Spatial variabilities and their relationships of the trends of temperature, water vapor, and precipitation in the North American Regional Reanalysis. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D06110, doi:10.1029/2009JD013192.
Takle ES, Manoj J, Lu E, Arritt RW, NARCCAP Team (2010): Streamflow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin as simulated by SWAT driven by 20C results of NARCCAP regional climate models. Meteorologische Zeitschift, DOI 10.1127/0941-2948/2010/0464.
Lu E* (2009): Determining the start, duration, and strength of flood and drought with daily precipitation: Rationale. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L12707, doi:10.1029/2009GL038817.
Lu E*, Zeng X, Jiang Z, Wang Y, Zhang Q (2009): Precipitation and precipitable water: Their temporal-spatial behaviors and use in determining monsoon onset/retreat and monsoon regions. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D23105, doi:10.1029/2009JD012146.
Takle ES, Manoj J, Lu E, Arritt RW, Pryor SC (2009): Climate change and streamflow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin. Understanding climate change: Climate variability, predictability, and change in the Midwestern United States (Ed: S. C. Pryor), Indiana University Press, pp312.
Lu E* (2007): Understanding the effects of atmospheric circulation in the relationship between water vapor and temperature through theoretical analyses. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L14811, doi:10.1029/ 2007GL029727.
Pielke RA, Matsui T, Leoncini G, Nobis T, Nair US, Lu E, Eastman J, Kumar S, Walko RL (2006): A new paradigm for parameterizations in numerical weather prediction and other atmospheric models. National Weather Digest, 30, 93-99.
Lu E*, Zeng X (2005): Understanding different precipitation seasonality regimes from water vapor and temperature fields: Case studies. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L22707, doi:10.1029/ 2005GL024333.
Zeng X, Lu E (2004): Globally unified monsoon onset and retreat indexes. Journal of Climate, 17, 2241-2248.
Li T, Zhang Y, Lu E, Wang D (2002): Relative role of dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the development of the Indian Ocean dipole: An OGCM diagnosis. Geophysical Research Letters, 29(23), 2110, doi:10.1029/2002GL015789.
Lu E, Chan JCL (1999): A unified monsoon index for South China. Journal of Climate, 12, 2375-2385.
Lu E, Ding Y, Murakami M, Takahashi K (1998): Nature of precipitation and activity of cumulus convection during the 1991 Meiyu season of Changjiang-Huaihe River basin. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 12, 75-91.
Lu E, Ding Y (1997): Low frequency oscillation in East Asia during the 1991 excessively heavy rain over the Changjiang-Huaihe River basin. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 11, 12-22.
陆尔、丁一汇、李月洪：1991年江淮特大暴雨的位涡分析与冷空气活动. 应用气象学报，1994，5(3)，266-274.
陆尔、丁一汇：1991年江淮持续性特大暴雨的夏季风活动分析. 应用气象学报，1997，8(3)，316-324.
丁一汇、陆尔：据1991年特大洪涝过程的物理分析试论江淮梅雨预测. 气候与环境研究，1997, 2(1), 32-38.
曾颖婷、陆尔：1961-2010年我国夏季总降水和极端降水的变化, 气候变化研究进展, 2015,11(2):79-85, doi:10.3969/j.issn. 1673-1719.2015.02.001.
王睆、陆尔、赵玮、李慧：一种新的反映我国降水季节内非均匀性特征的方法, 热带气象学报, 2015, 31(5):655-663, doi:1004-4965(2015)05-0655-09.
陈虹杏、谌芸、陆尔、李慧：2008年初南方雨雪冰冻期间降水过程的温湿异常, 应用气象学报, 2015, 26(5):525-535, doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20150502.
龚理卿、赵玮、陆尔、江志红：基于标准化时间序列加权法的IPCC-AR4多模式集成, 气象科学, 2015, doi:10.3969/2014jms.0066.
姜颖、陆尔：1991年夏季江淮洪涝：水汽和冷空气的作用比较, 气象科学, 2016, doi:10.3969/2014jms.0015.
李鑫、马红云、陆尔：中国东部城市土地利用变化对江南春雨影响的模拟研究, 气象科学, 2016, 36(4), 457-465.
李路遥、陆尔、赵玮：在用降水逐日监测干旱的方法中引入蒸发, 气象科学，2018, 38(3), 385-391.
袁典、陆尔、赵玮：用检测极端降水过程的EID方法确定梅雨雨期, 气象科学，2018, 38(1), 37-45.
李慧, 陆尔等. Rossby波和热带对流活动对2010年6月梅雨发生前后我国东部两次强降水过程的影响. 大气科学学报, 2019, 42(06): 824-834.
赵玮, 陆尔等. 一种表征南海季风强度的指标及其与华南降水的关系. 大气科学, 2020, 44(01): 1-12.
杨可心，陆尔等，大气浮力频率的时空变化及其影响因子分析. 大气科学学报，2021，DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20181022001.
杜雪婷，陆尔等，2014年夏季长江流域持续性低温的大尺度环流异常. 大气科学学报，2021，DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20180320001.
近期科研项目:
国家自然科学基金面上项目，42475034，基于深度神经网络的长江中下游夏季降水的归因与预测研究，2025-2028，主持。
国家自然科学基金面上项目，41275092，长江流域重大干旱事件的监测和形成机理研究，2013-2016，主持。
国家自然科学基金重大项目，41991280，亚洲中高纬区极端气候的机理、预测预估及其生态环境影响，2020-2024，专题主持。
公益性行业专项重大项目，GYHY201506001，干旱气象科学研究--我国北方干旱致灾过程及机理，2015-2019，专题主持。
国家自然科学基金重点项目，41230422，欧亚大陆表层热力异常影响东亚夏季风的物理机制研究，2013-2017，专题主持。
国家自然科学基金重点项目，41230528，降尺度与多模式结合的中国未来气候变化概率预估及其不确定性研究，2013-2017，专题主持。
国家重点研发计划专项项目，2018YFC1507704，中国区域重大极端天气气候事件的归因方法研究，2018-2021，专题主持。
国家气候中心委托项目，区域性暴雨高温过程综合评估方法研究，主持。
国家气候中心委托项目，重大气候灾害强度指标研发及个例库建设，主持。
国家气候中心委托项目，高空急流月季尺度变异关键信号及其在短期气候预测中的应用研究，主持。
中国气象科学研究院委托项目，华北地区重大污染过程对水汽相对湿度的敏感性模拟试验，主持。
辽宁省气象局委托项目，辽宁省持续性干旱检测技术和形成机理研究，主持。