博士生导师
硕士生导师
性别:男
所在单位:水文与水资源工程学院
袁星,男,博士,南京信息工程大学教授(二级),博士生导师,国家“特支计划”科技创新领军人才,中国青年科技奖获得者。研究方向为水文气候和水文气象,包括气候变化对极端事件影响归因、高分辨率陆面水文模型研发、水文气象集合预报等。主持国家重点研发计划项目,国家自然科学基金重点项目、企事业委托项目等20余项。发表SCI论文160篇,包括Science、Nature Communications等期刊第一/通讯作者SCI论文110余篇。担任Hydrology and Earth System Sciences、JGR-A等5个SCI期刊编委、《大气科学》常务编委、《大气科学学报》等3个核心期刊编委。国际水文协会IAHS中国委员会陆气关系分委会副主席,长江技术经济学会青年工作委员会副主任委员,中国气象学会干旱气象专业委员会副主任委员、水文气象专业委员会副主任委员。曾获国家“海外引才计划”青年学者、中国科学院优秀导师、江苏“杰出青年基金”、江苏“双创人才”、谢义炳青年气象科技奖、清华大学⁃浪潮集团计算地球科学青年人才奖、中国科学院大学领雁银奖-振翅奖等荣誉,成果获中国气象局年度科技成果奖、江苏省自然科学百篇优秀学术成果论文、ERL期刊年度环境领域高被引奖。(xyuan@nuist.edu.cn)
科研项目
13. 国家重点研发计划项目,2024YFC3012400,旱涝急转事件风险辨识与防控技术,2025/01-2027/12,在研,主持
12. 国家自然科学基金重点项目,42330604,气候和下垫面变化下陆气耦合过程对中国东部骤旱的影响研究,2024/01-2028/12,在研,主持
11. 国家自然科学基金联合基金项目(重点支持项目),U22A20556,暖湿化进程中三江源区气候-水文-生态过程的动态耦合机制及其径流效应,2023/01-2026/12,在研,主持
10. 国家“特支计划”科技创新领军人才,第六批,地球科学,2021-2023,结题,主持
9. 江苏省杰出青年基金项目,BK20211540,气候变暖和城市化背景下华东热浪-骤旱相互作用机制,2021/07-2024/06,结题,主持
8. 国家重点研发计划“全球变化及应对”专项课题,2018YFA0606002,高分辨率区域陆面-生态-水文集成模型研发,2018/05-2023/04,结题,主持
7. 国家自然科学基金面上项目,41875105,气候变化背景下我国南方骤发干旱的演变趋势及驱动机制, 2019/01-2022/12,结题,主持
6. 国家自然科学基金重大研究计划培育项目,91547103,三江源区下垫面变化的气候效应及其对极端径流的影响,2016/01-2018/12,结题,主持
5. 国家“海外引才计划”青年项目,第十一批,地球与环境科学,2015-2018,结题,主持
4. 江苏省“双创人才”项目,全球不同温升阈值下江淮流域骤发干旱的生态水文效应研究,2020/09-2023/08,结题,主持
3. 中国长江电力股份有限公司委托项目,长江上游旱涝因子识别与中长期径流预报模型研究,在研,主持
2. 国家气象信息中心委托项目,基于陆面和海洋融合产品的雷达资料质量评估子系统软件开发,结题,主持
1. 黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司委托项目,伊洛河流域分布式洪水预报模型研发,在研,主持
学术论文(*通讯作者)
175. Ma, F., and X. Yuan*, 2025: The propagation from atmospheric flash drought to soil flash drought and its changes in a warmer climate. Journal of Hydrology, 654, 132877. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132877
174. Yang, H., F. Ma*, X. Yuan*, P. Ji, and C. Li, 2025: Vegetation greening accelerated the propagation from meteorological to soil droughts in the Loess Plateau from a three-dimensional perspective. Journal of Hydrology, 650, 132522. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132522
173. Zhu, E., Y. Wang, Y. Zhao, and X. Yuan*, 2025: Improving Long-term Prediction of Terrestrial Water Storage through Integration with CMIP6 Decadal Prediction. Atmospheric Research, 313, 107776. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107776
172. Wang L., D. Li, X. Yuan, 2025: The role of vapor pressure deficit in the CLM simulated interaction between urban heat islands and heat waves over CONUS. Geophysical Research Letters, accepted
171. Li H., J. Wang, X. Yuan, Y. Liu, H. Li, F. Ma, B. Zhou, 2025: Unstable relationship between tropical Indian Ocean SST and spring drought on the Loess Plateau modulated by interdecadal variability of ENSO. Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0269.1
170. Zhong, Y., B. Tian, H. Kim, X. Yuan, X. Liu, E. Zhu, Y. Wu, L. Wang, and L. Wang, 2025: Over 60% precipitation transformed into terrestrial water storage in global river basins from 2002 to 2021. Communications Earth & Environment, 6, 53. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01967-7
169. 袁星*, 王钰淼, 周诗玙, 李华, 李晨远, 2024: 气候变化下2022年长江特大骤旱的多尺度成因分析. 中国科学: 地球科学, 54(8), 2690 – 2702. https://doi.org/10.1360/SSTe-2024-0007
Yuan, X.*, Y. Wang, S. Zhou, H. Li, C. Li, 2024: Multiscale causes of the 2022 Yangtze mega-flash drought under climate change. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, 67(8), 2649–2660. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-024-1356-x
168. 袁星*, 周诗玙, 马凤, 王钰淼, 郝奕, 梁妙玲, 陈李楠, 2024: 气候和下垫面变化下骤旱形成演变机制研究进展. 地球科学进展,39(9), 877-888. https://doi.org/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2024.065
167. Ma, F., X. Yuan*, H. Li, 2024: Dominant atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the rapid intensification of summer flash droughts in Eastern China. Science of the Total Environment, 957, 177416. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177416
166. Hao, Y., X. Yuan*, and M. Zhang, 2024: Enhanced relationship between seasonal soil moisture droughts and vegetation under climate change over China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 358, 110258. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110258
165. Ji, P., and X. Yuan*, 2024: Spatially Varying Effect of Soil Moisture-Atmosphere Feedback on Spring Streamflow under Future Warming in China. Communications Earth & Environment, 5, 518. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01701-3
164. Ji, P., and X. Yuan*, 2024: Disparities and similarities in the spatiotemporal dynamics of flash and slow droughts in China. Environmental Research Letters, 19, 084015. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5d7e
163. Ji, P., X. Yuan*, F. Ma, Q. Xu, 2024: Drivers of long-term changes in summer compound hot extremes in China: climate change, urbanization, and vegetation greening. Atmospheric Research, 310, 107632. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107632
162. Wang Y., X. Yuan*, Y. Liu, and W. Wang, 2024: Skillful Seasonal Prediction of the 2022-23 Mega Soil Drought over the Yangtze River Basin by Combining Dynamical Climate Prediction and Copula Analysis. Environmental Research Letters, 19, 064019. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad4978
161. Chen, S., and X. Yuan*, 2024: The timing of detectable increases in seasonal soil moisture droughts under future climate change. Earth's Future, 12, e2023EF004174. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004174
160. Xi, X., M. Liang*, and X. Yuan*, 2024: Increased atmospheric water stress on gross primary productivity during flash droughts over China from 1961 to 2022. Weather and Climate Extremes, 44, 100667. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100667
159. Huang, Z., X. Yuan*, P. Ji, S. Sun, and G. Leng, 2024: Shifts in trends and correlation of water scarcity and productivity over China. Journal of Hydrology, 635, 131187. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131187
158. Zhou, S., M. Liang*, and X. Yuan*, 2024: Impact of upwind flash drought on 2022 record-shattering heatwave over East China. Climate Dynamics, 62, 6367-6380. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07211-4
157. Rao, P., F. Wang, X. Yuan*, Y. Liu, and Y. Jiao, 2024: Evaluation and comparison of 11 sets of gridded precipitation products over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Atmospheric Research, 302, 107315. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107315
156. Ma, F., X. Yuan*, H. Li, and Y. Wang, 2024: Flash drought in the south of Yangtze River and the potential impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere, 129, e2023JD039820. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039820
155. Ma, F., and X. Yuan*, 2024: Vegetation greening and climate warming increased the propagation risk from meteorological drought to soil drought at subseasonal timescales. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2023GL107937. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107937
154. Li, C., X. Yuan*, Y. Jiao, P. Ji, Z. Huang, 2024: High-resolution Land Surface Modeling of the Irrigation Effects on Evapotranspiration over the Yellow River Basin. Journal of Hydrology, 633, 130986. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130986
153. Zeng J., X. Yuan*, and P. Ji, 2024: The important role of reliable land surface model simulation in high resolution multi-source soil moisture data fusion by machine learning. Journal of Hydrology, 630, 130700. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130700
152. Zeng, D., and X. Yuan*, 2024: The Important Role of Reduced Moisture Supplies from Monsoon Region in the Formation of Spring and Summer Droughts over Northeast China. Journal of Climate, 37(5), 1703–1722. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0344.1
151. Ji, P., X. Yuan*, Y. Jiao, and M. Zhang, 2024: On the reliability of 12 high-resolution precipitation products for process-based hydrological modeling in China. Journal of Hydrology, 628, 130598. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130598
150. Wang, W., and X. Yuan*, 2024: Climate change and La Niña increase the likelihood of the ‘7·20’ extraordinary typhoon-rainstorm in Zhengzhou, China. International Journal of Climatology, 44(5), 1355-1370. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8386
149. Liu, Y., X. Yuan*, Y. Jiao, P. Ji, C. Li, and X. An, 2024: Ensemble forecasts of extreme flood events with weather forecasts, land surface modeling and deep learning. Water, 16, 990. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16070990
148. Li, H., Y. Yan, S. He, X. Yuan, B. Zhou, H. Wang, Z. Xu, L. Zhen, 2024: Interdecadal changes in interannual variability of June temperature over Northeast China induced by decadal shifts in the North Atlantic teleconnection. Climate Dynamics, 62, 9843–9860. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07425-6
147. Wang, L., B. Jia, X. Yuan, Z. Xie, K. Yang, J. Shi, 2024: The slowdown of increasing groundwater storage in response to climate warming in the Tibetan Plateau. NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7, 286. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00840-w
146. Li, H., S. He, X. Yuan, Y. Liu, Y. Han, 2024: The contrast responses of August precipitation over Northeast China to strong and moderate developing El Niño. Atmospheric Research, 304, 107378. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107378
145. Tian, Y., Y. Ji, X. Gao, X. Yuan, and X. Zhi, 2024: Post-processing of short-term quantitative precipitation forecast with the multi-stream convolutional neural network. Atmospheric Research, 309, 107584. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107584
144. Wu, J., G. Wang, X. Chen, X. Yuan, H. Yao, X. Chen, T. Lan, Y. Zheng, and A. Amir, 2024: Hydrological drought characterization considering onset, maximum streamflow deficit, and termination. Advances in Water Resources, 184, 104613. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2023.104613
143. Wu, F., X. Yang, X. Yuan, L. Ren, S. Yuan, F. Yuan, S. Jiang, Y. Liu, and H. Zhang, 2024: How will drought evolve in global arid zones under different future emission scenarios? Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 51, 101661. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101661
142. Yuan, X.*, Y. Wang, P. Ji, P. Wu, J. Sheffield, and J. Otkin, 2023: A global transition to flash droughts under climate change. Science, 380, 187-191. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn6301
141. Ji, P., X. Yuan*, and Y. Jiao, 2023: Synergistic effects of high-resolution factors for improving soil moisture simulations over China. Water Resources Research, 59(12), e2023WR035513. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR035513
140. Wang, Y., and X. Yuan*, 2023: High temperature accelerates onset speed of the 2022 unprecedented flash drought over the Yangtze River Basin. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(22), e2023GL105375. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105375
139. Zhou, S., and X. Yuan*, 2023: Acceleration of the onset speeds of heat waves over East China by upwind flash droughts. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere, 128(10), e2022JD038072. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD038072
138. Huang, Z., X. Yuan*, S. Sun, G. Leng, and Q. Tang, 2023: Groundwater depletion rate over China during 1965-2016: the long-term trend and inter-annual variation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere, 128(11), e2022JD038109. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD038109
137. Liu, X., X. Yuan*, F. Ma, and J. Xia, 2023: The increasing risk of energy droughts for hydropower in the Yangtze River basin. Journal of Hydrology, 621, 129589. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129589
136. Shao, C., X. Yuan*, and F. Ma, 2023: Skill decreases in real-time seasonal climate prediction due to decadal variability. Climate Dynamics, 61, 4203–4217. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06800-z
135. Li, J., X. Yuan*, and P. Ji, 2023: Long-lead daily streamflow forecasting using Long Short-Term Memory model with different predictors. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 48, 101471. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101471
134. Ma, F., X. Yuan*, and X. Liu, 2023: Intensification of drought propagation over the Yangtze River basin under climate warming. International Journal of Climatology, 43, 5640-5661. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8165
133. Zhu, E., C. Shi*, S. Sun, B. Jia, Y. Wang, and X. Yuan*, 2023: Hybrid Assimilation of Snow Cover Improves Land Surface simulations over Northern China. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 24(10), 1725–1738. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-23-0014.1
132. Liang, M., X. Yuan*, S. Zhou, Z. Ma, 2023: Spatiotemporal evolution and nowcasting of the 2022 Yangtze River mega-flash drought. Water, 15, 2744. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15152744
131. Omer, A., X. Yuan*, and A. Gemitzi, 2023: Transboundary Nile Basin Dynamics: Land Use Change, Drivers, and Hydrological Impacts under Socioeconomic Pathways. Ecological Indicators, 153, 110414. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110414
130. Zhu, E., Y. Wang, and X. Yuan*, 2023: Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage during 1981-2020 over China Based on Dynamic-Machine Learning Model. Journal of Hydrology, 621, 129576. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129576
129. Cao, Q., X. Yuan*, Q. Yan, and F. Zhu, 2023: Decadal change of rainfall erosivity during rainy season in mainland China and its underlying causes. Journal of Hydrology, 620, 129391. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129391
128. Ma, R., and X. Yuan*, 2023: Subseasonal ensemble prediction of flash droughts over China. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 24(5), 897–910. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0150.1
127. Ma, F., and X. Yuan*, 2023: When will the unprecedented 2022 summer heat wave in Yangtze River basin become normal in a warming climate? Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2022GL101946. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101946
126. Xi, X., and X. Yuan*, 2023: Remote sensing of atmospheric and soil water stress on ecosystem carbon and water use during flash droughts over eastern China. Science of the Total Environment, 868, 161715. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161715
125. Ji, P., X. Yuan*, and Y. Jiao, 2023: Future hydrological drought changes over the upper Yellow River basin: the role of climate change, land cover change and reservoir operation. Journal of Hydrology, 617, 129128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129128
124. Ji, P., X. Yuan*, C. Shi, L. Jiang, G. Wang, and K. Yang, 2023: A long-term simulation of land surface conditions at high-resolution over continental China. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 24(2), 285-314. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0135.1
123. Huang, Z., X. Yuan*, X. Liu, and Q. Tang, 2023: Growing control of climate change on water scarcity alleviation over northern part of China. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 46, 101332. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101332
122. Liang, M., X. Yuan*, and W. Wang, 2023: Improving the forecasts of surface latent heat fluxes and surface air temperature in the GRAPES Global Forecast System. Atmosphere, 14(8), 1241. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081241
121. Li, J., and X. Yuan*, 2023: Daily streamflow forecasts based on cascade Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model over the Yangtze River basin. Water, 15, 1019. https://doi.org/10.3390/w1506101
120. Lin, D., X. Yuan*, B. Jia*, and P. Ji, 2023: Assessment of high-resolution surface soil moisture products over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau for 2009–2017. Atmosphere, 14(2), 302. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020302
119. Yang, H., F. Ma, and X. Yuan, 2023: The role of human activities in the weakening of the propagation relationship between meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Heihe River Basin. Hydrological Processes, 37, e14946. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14946
118. Li, Y., S. Chen, J. Yin, and X. Yuan, 2023: Technical note: A stochastic framework for identification and evaluation of flash drought. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 27, 1077–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1077-2023
117. Wu, J., H. Yao, G. Wang, X. Chen, X. Yuan, Y. Zhou, and D. Zhang, 2023: Dynamics of DOC concentration and flux in different propagation stages of hydrological drought: patterns and drivers. Journal of Hydrology, 617, 128939. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128939
116. 季鹏, 袁星*, 2023: 基于多种机器学习模型的西北地区蒸散发模拟与趋势分析. 大气科学学报, 46(1), 69-81.
115. 李晨远, 黄忠伟, 袁星, 吴杰峰, 2023: 人类用水活动对中国水文干旱特征的影响评估. 水利水电技术, 54(10), 115-125.
114. 田烨, 谭伟丽, 王国庆, 袁星, 2023: LSTM变体模型在径流预测中的性能及其可解释性. 水资源保护, 39(3), 188-194.
113. Wang, Y., and X. Yuan*, 2022: Land-atmosphere coupling speeds up flash drought onset. Science of the Total Environment, 851, 158109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158109
112. Xi, X., and X. Yuan*, 2022: Significant water stress on gross primary productivity during flash droughts with hot conditions. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 324, 109100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109100
111. Zhang, M., X. Yuan*, J. Otkin, and P. Ji, 2022: Climate warming outweighs vegetation greening in intensifying flash droughts over China. Environmental Research Letters, 17(5), 054041. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac69fb
110. Chen, S., X. Yuan*, 2022: Quantifying the uncertainty of internal variability in future projections of seasonal soil moisture droughts over China. Science of the Total Environment, 824, 153817. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153817
109. Ma, F., X. Yuan*, H. Li, 2022: Characteristics and circulation patterns for wet and dry compound day-night heat waves in mid-eastern China. Global and Planetary Change, 213, 103839. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103839
108. Zhou, S., and X. Yuan*, 2022: Upwind droughts enhance half of the heatwaves over North China. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(2), e2021GL096639. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096639
107. Ma, F., X. Yuan*, P. Wu, and Z. Zeng, 2022: A moderate mitigation can significantly delay the emergence of compound hot extremes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127(2), e2021JD035427. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035427
106. Liu, J., X. Yuan*, J. Zeng, Y. Jiao, Y. Li, L. Zhong, and L. Yao, 2022: Ensemble streamflow forecasting over a cascade reservoir catchment with integrated hydrometeorological modeling and machine learning. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26(2), 265–278. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-265-2022
105. Liu, H, X. Yuan*, M. Zhang, 2022: Unraveling human influence on evapotranspiration over East Asian monsoon river basins by using GRACE/GRACE-FO data and land surface models. Journal of Hydrology, 605, 127349. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127349
104. Wu, J., H. Yao, X. Yuan, B. Lin, 2022: Dissolved organic carbon response to hydrological drought characteristics: based on long-term measurements of headwater streams. Water Research, 215, 118252. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2022.118252
103. Wu, J., I. Mallakpour, X. Yuan, H. Yao, G. Wang, X. Chen, 2022: Impact of the false intensification and recovery on the hydrological drought internal propagation. Weather and Climate Extremes, 36, 100430. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100430
102. Van Loon, A. F., S. Rangecroft, G. Coxon, M. Werner, N. Wanders, G. Di Baldassarre, E. Tijdeman, M. Bosman, T. Gleeson, A. Nauditt, A. Aghakouchak, J. Breña-Naranjo, O. Cenobio-Cruz, A. Costa, M. Fendekova, G. Jewitt, D. Kingston, J. Loft, S. Mager, I. Mallakpour, I. Masih, H. Maureira-Cortés, E. Toth, P. Van Oel, F. Van Ogtrop, K. Verbist, J.-P. Vidal, L. Wen, M. Yu, X. Yuan, M. Zhang, and H. Van Lanen, 2022: Streamflow droughts aggravated by human activities despite management. Environmental Research Letters, 17, 044059. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5def
101. Liu, Y., Z.-Z. Hu, R. Wu, and X. Yuan, 2022: Causes and Predictability of the 2021 Spring Southwestern China Severe Drought. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 39(10), 1766–1776. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1428-4
100. Wang, Y., and X. Yuan*, 2022: The anthropogenic acceleration and intensification of flash drought over the southeastern coastal region of China will continue into the future. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 15(5), 100262. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aosl.2022.100262
99. Li, H., B. Sun, H. Wang, X. Yuan, 2022: Joint effects of three oceans on the 2020 super mei-yu. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 15(1), 100127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aosl.2021.100127
98. 陈剑飞, 李勇, 刘俊江, 钟利华, 史彩霞, 袁星, 钟华昌, 2022: 耦合陆面水文模型和机器学习方法的水库径流量预报及应用. 气象研究与应用, 43(1), 1-7.
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96. Ji, P., X. Yuan*, X.-Z. Liang, Y. Jiao, Y. Zhou, and Z. Liu, 2021: High-resolution land surface modeling of the effect of long-term urbanization on hydrothermal changes over Beijing metropolitan area. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere, 126, e2021JD034787. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034787
95. Zeng, D., and X. Yuan*, 2021: Modeling the Influence of Upstream Land–Atmosphere Coupling on the 2017 Persistent Drought over Northeast China. Journal of Climate, 34(12), 4971–4988. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0650.1
94. Wang, Y., and X. Yuan*, 2021: Anthropogenic Speeding Up of South China Flash Droughts as Exemplified by the 2019 Summer-Autumn Transition Season. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(9), e2020GL091901. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091901
93. Ma, F., and X. Yuan*, 2021: More Persistent Summer Compound Hot Extremes Caused by Global Urbanization. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(15), e2021GL093721. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093721
92. Ma, F., and X. Yuan*, 2021: Impact of climate and population changes on the increasing exposure to summertime compound hot extremes. Science of the Total Environment, 772, 145004, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145004
91. Huang, Z., X. Yuan*, and X. Liu, 2021: The key drivers for the changes in global water scarcity: water withdrawal versus water availability. Journal of Hydrology, 601, 126658. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126658
90. Chen, S., and X. Yuan*, 2021: CMIP6 projects less frequent seasonal soil moisture droughts over China in response to different warming levels. Environmental Research Letters, 16, 044053, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe782
89. Liu, X., X. Yuan*, E. Zhu, 2021: Global warming induces significant changes in the fraction of stored precipitation in the surface soil. Global and Planetary Change, 205, 103616. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103616
88. Zhu, E., and X. Yuan*, 2021: Global freshwater storage capability across time scales in the GRACE satellite era. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 38(6), 905-917. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-021-0222-z
87. Liang, M., and X. Yuan*, 2021: Critical role of soil moisture memory in predicting the 2012 central United States flash drought. Frontiers in Earth Science, 9, 615969, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.615969
86. Li, H., K. Fan, S. He, Y. Liu, X. Yuan, and H. Wang, 2021: Intensified impacts of central Pacific ENSO on the reversal of December and January surface air temperature anomaly over China since 1997. Journal of Climate, 34(5), 1601-1618, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0048.1
85. Wang, S., J. Huang, and X. Yuan, 2021: Attribution of 2019 Extreme Spring-Early Summer Hot Drought over Yunnan in Southwestern China. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102(1), S91–S96, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0121.1
84. Wu, J., X. Yuan, H. Yao, X. Chen, and G. Wang, 2021: Reservoirs regulate the relationship between hydrological drought recovery water and drought characteristics. Journal of Hydrology, 603, 127127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127127
83. Wu, J., X. Chen, X. Yuan, H. Yao, Y. Zhao, and A. AghaKouchak, 2021: The interactions between hydrological drought evolution and precipitation-streamflow relationship. Journal of Hydrology, 597, 126210, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126210
82. Li, H., S. He, K. Fan, Y. Liu, and X. Yuan, 2021: Recent intensified influence of the winter North Pacific sea surface temperature on the withdrawal date of Meiyu. Journal of Climate, 34(10), 3869–3887. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0768.1
81. Huang, Z., X. Liu, S. Sun, Y. Tang, X. Yuan, and Q. Tang, 2021: Global assessment of future sectoral water scarcity under adaptive inner-basin water allocation measures. Science of the Total Environment, 783, 146973. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146973
80. Omer, A., Z. Ma, X. Yuan, Z. Zheng, F. Saleem, 2021: A hydrological perspective on drought risk-assessment in the Yellow River Basin under future anthropogenic activities. Journal of Environmental Management, 289, 112429. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112429
79. Wang, Y., Y. Zhou, K. Franz, X. Zhang, K. Ding, G. Jia, and X. Yuan, 2021: An agent-based framework for high-resolution modeling of domestic water use. Resources, Conservation & Recycling, 169, 105520. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105520
78. 袁星*,王钰淼,张苗,王琳瑛,2020:关于骤旱研究的一些思考. 大气科学学报, 43(6), 1086-1095
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76. Zhang, M., and X. Yuan*, 2020: Rapid reduction in ecosystem productivity caused by flash droughts based on decade-long FLUXNET observations. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24(11), 5579–5593, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5579-2020
75. Ji, P., X. Yuan*, F. Ma, and M. Pan, 2020: Accelerated hydrological cycle over the Sanjiangyuan region induces more streamflow extremes at different global warming levels, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24(11), 5439-5451, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5439-2020
74. Zhang, M., X. Yuan*, and J. Otkin, 2020: Remote sensing of the impact of flash drought events on terrestrial carbon dynamics over China. Carbon Balance and Management, 15(1), 20, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-020-00156-1
73. Zhu, E., X. Yuan*, and P. Wu, 2020: Skillful decadal prediction of droughts over large-scale river basins across the globe. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL089738. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089738
72. Ma, F., X. Yuan*, Y. Jiao, and P. Ji, 2020: Unprecedented Europe heat in June-July 2019: Risk in the historical and future context. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL087809. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087809
71. Ji, P., X. Yuan*, Y. Jiao, C. Wang, S. Han, and C. Shi, 2020: Anthropogenic contributions to the 2018 extreme flooding over the upper Yellow River basin in China. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(1), S89-S94, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0105.1
70. Ji, P., X. Yuan*, and D. Li, 2020: Atmospheric radiative processes accelerate ground surface warming over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau during 1998-2013. Journal of Climate, 33(5), 1881-1895, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0410.1
69. Zhang, M., and X. Yuan*, 2020: Crucial role of natural processes in detecting human influence on evapotranspiration by multisource data analysis. Journal of Hydrology, 580, 124350, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124350
68. Ji, P., and X. Yuan*, 2020: Underestimation of the Warming Trend over the Tibetan Plateau during 1998-2013 by Global Land Data Assimilation Systems and Atmospheric Reanalyses. Journal of Meteorological Research, 34(1), 88-100, doi: 10.1007/s13351-020-9100-3
67. Yuan, X.*, L. Wang, P. Wu, P. Ji, J. Sheffield, and M. Zhang, 2019: Anthropogenic shift towards higher risk of flash drought over China. Nature Communications, 10, 4661. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12692-7
66. Zhu, E., X. Yuan*, and A. Wood, 2019: Benchmark Decadal Forecast Skill for Terrestrial Water Storage Estimated by an Elasticity Framework. Nature Communications, 10, 1237. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09245-3
65. Jiao, Y., and X. Yuan*, 2019: More Severe Hydrological Drought Events Emerge at Different Warming Levels over the Wudinghe Watershed in northern China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 621–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-621-2019
65. Zeng, D., X. Yuan*, and J. K. Roundy, 2019: Effect of Teleconnected Land-atmosphere Coupling on Northeast China Persistent Drought in Spring-Summer of 2017. Journal of Climate, 32(21), 7403-7420, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0175.1
63. Wang, S., X. Yuan*, R. Wu, 2019: Attribution of the persistent spring-summer hot and dry extremes over Northeast China in 2017. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100(1), S85-S89, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0120.1
62. Li, Y.*, X. Yuan*, H. Zhang, R. Wang, C. Wang, X. Meng, Z. Zhang, S. Wang, Y. Yang, B. Han, K. Zhang, X. Wang, H. Zhao, G. Zhou, Q. Zhang, Q. He, N. Guo, W. Hou, C. Zhang, G. Xiao, X. Sun, P. Yue, S. Sha, H. Wang, T. Zhang, J. Wang, and Y. Yao, 2019: Mechanisms and Early Warning of Drought Disasters: Experimental Drought Meteorology Research over China. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100, 673-687, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0029.1
61. Apurv, T., X. Cai, and X. Yuan, 2019: Influence of internal variability and global warming on multidecadal changes in regional drought severity over the continental United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 20(3), 411–429, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0167.1.
60. Liang, P., Z.-Z. Hu, Y. Liu, X. Yuan, X. Li, and X. Jiang, 2019: Challenges in predicting and simulating summer rainfall in the eastern China. Climate Dynamics, 52, 2217–2233, doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4256-6
59. Yuan, X.*, L. Wang, and E. F. Wood, 2018: Anthropogenic intensification of southern African flash droughts as exemplified by the 2015/16 season. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99, S86-S90, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0077.1
58. Yuan, X.*, S. Wang, and Z.-Z. Hu, 2018: Do climate change and El Niño increase likelihood of Yangtze River extreme rainfall? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99, S113-S117, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0089.1
57. Yuan, X.*, and E. Zhu, 2018: A first look at decadal hydrological predictability by land surface ensemble simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 2362-2369, doi:10.1002/2018GL077211
56. Yuan, X.*, Y. Jiao, D. Yang, and H. Lei, 2018: Reconciling the attribution of changes in streamflow extremes from a hydroclimate perspective. Water Resources Research, 54, 3886–3895, doi:10.1029/2018WR022714
55. Yuan, X.*, P. Ji, L. Wang, X.-Z. Liang, K. Yang, A. Ye, Z. Su, and J. Wen, 2018: High-resolution land surface modeling of hydrological changes over the Sanjiangyuan region in the eastern Tibetan Plateau: 1. Model development and evaluation. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10, 2806–2828, doi:10.1029/2018MS001412.
54. Ji, P., and X. Yuan*, 2018: High-resolution land surface modeling of hydrological changes over the Sanjiangyuan region in the eastern Tibetan Plateau: 2. Impact of climate and land cover change. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10, 2829–2843, doi:10.1029/2018MS001413.
53. Wang, S., and X. Yuan*, 2018: Extending seasonal predictability of Yangtze River summer floods. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22, 4201-4211, doi:10.5194/hess-22-4201-2018.
52. Zeng, D., and X. Yuan*, 2018: Multiscale land-atmosphere coupling and its application in assessing subseasonal forecasts over East Asia. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19, 745-760, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-17-0215.1
51. Yao, M., and X. Yuan*, 2018: Superensemble seasonal forecasting of soil moisture by NMME. International Journal of Climatology, 38, 2565–2574, doi:10.1002/joc.5436
50. Wang, L., and X. Yuan*, 2018: Two types of flash drought and their connections with seasonal drought. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 35(12), 1478–1490, doi: 10.1007/s00376-018-8047-0.
49. Li, Y., Y. Li, X. Yuan, L. Zhang, and S. Sha, 2018: Evaluation of Model-based Soil Moisture Drought Monitoring over Three Key Regions in China. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 57, 1989-2004, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0118.1.
48. Yao, M., and X. Yuan*, 2018: Evaluation of summer drought ensemble prediction over the Yellow River basin. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 11(4), 314-321, doi:10.1080/16742834.2018.1484253
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45. Ji, P., X. Yuan*, and X.-Z. Liang, 2017: Do lateral flows matter for the hyperresolution land surface modeling? Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 122, 12077-12092, doi:10.1002/2017JD027366
44. Wang, S., X. Yuan*, and Y. Li, 2017: Does a strong El Niño imply a higher predictability of extreme drought? Scientific Reports,7, 40741; doi: 10.1038/srep40741
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42. Lv, M., Z. Ma, X. Yuan, M. Lv, M. Li, and Z. Zheng, 2017: Water budget closure based on GRACE measurements and reconstructed evapotranspiration using GLDAS and water use data for two large densely-populated mid-latitude basins. Journal of Hydrology, 547, 585-599, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol. 2017.02.027
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40. Jiao, Y., H. Lei, D. Yang, M. Huang, D. Liu, and X. Yuan, 2017: Impact of vegetation dynamics on hydrological processes in a semi-arid basin by using a land surface-hydrology coupled model. Journal of Hydrology, 551,116-131, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.060
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33. Xie, Z., L. Wang, B. Jia, and X. Yuan, 2016: Measuring and modeling the impact of a severe drought on terrestrial ecosystem CO2 and water fluxes in a subtropical forest. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences, 121, 2576-2587, doi:10.1002/2016JG003437
32. Tang, Q., X. Zhang, Q. Duan, S. Huang, X. Yuan, H. Cui, Z. Li, and X. Liu, 2016: Hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting: progress and perspectives. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 26(7), 904-920,doi: 10.1007/s11442-016-1306-z
31. Yuan, X.*, J. K. Roundy, E. F. Wood, and J. Sheffield, 2015: Seasonal forecasting of global hydrologic extremes: system development and evaluation over GEWEX basins. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, 1895-1912, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00003.1
30. Yuan, X.*, Z. Ma, M. Pan, and C. Shi, 2015: Microwave remote sensing of short-term droughts during crop growing seasons. Geophysical Research Letters, 42, 4394-4401, doi:10.1002/2015GL064125
29. Yuan, X.*, E. F. Wood, and Z. Ma, 2015: A review on climate-model-based seasonal hydrologic forecasting: physical understanding and system development. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 2, 523-536, doi: 10.1002/wat2.1088
28. Ma, F., X. Yuan*, and A. Ye, 2015: Seasonal Drought Predictability and Forecast Skill over China. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 120, 8264-8275, doi:10.1002/2015JD023185
27. Roundy, J. K., X. Yuan, J. Schaake, and E. F. Wood, 2015: A framework for diagnosing seasonal prediction through canonical event analysis. Monthly Weather Review, 143, 2404-2418, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00190.1
26. Yuan, X.*, E. F. Wood, and M. Liang, 2014: Integrating weather and climate prediction: toward seamless hydrologic forecasting. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 5891–5896, doi:10.1002/2014GL061076
25. Hejazi, M., X. Cai, X. Yuan, X.-Z. Liang, and P. Kumar, 2014: Incorporating reanalysis-based short-term forecasts from a regional climate model in an irrigation scheduling optimization problem. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 140(5), 699-713, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000365
24. Kam, J., J. Sheffield, X. Yuan, and E. F. Wood, 2014: Did a skillful prediction of sea surface temperatures help or hinder forecasting of the 2012 Midwestern US drought? Environmental Research Letters, 9, 034005, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034005
23. Sheffield, J., E. F. Wood, N. Chaney, K. Guan, S. Sadri, X. Yuan, L. Olang, A. Amani, A. Ali, S. Demuth, and L. Ogallo, 2014: A Drought Monitoring and Forecasting System for Sub-Sahara African Water Resources and Food Security. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95, 861-882, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00124.1
22. Yang, L., F. Tian, Y. Sun, X. Yuan, and H. Hu, 2014: Attribution of hydrologic forecast uncertainty within scalable forecast windows. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 775-786, doi:10.5194/hess-18-775-2014
21. Ye, A., Q. Duan, X. Yuan, E. F. Wood, and J. Schaake, 2014: Hydrologic post-processing of MOPEX streamflow simulations. Journal of Hydrology, 508, 147-156, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.10.055
20. Yuan, X.*, E. F. Wood, J. K. Roundy, and M. Pan, 2013: CFSv2-based seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts over the conterminous United States. Journal of Climate, 26, 4828-4847, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00683.1
19. Yuan, X.*, and E. F. Wood, 2013: Multimodel seasonal forecasting of global drought onset. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(18), 4900-4905, doi:10.1002/grl.50949
18. Yuan, X.*, E. F. Wood, N. W. Chaney, J. Sheffield, J. Kam, M. Liang, and K. Guan, 2013: Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasting of African Drought by Dynamical Models. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 14, 1706-1720, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-13-054.1
17. Kam, J., J. Sheffield, X. Yuan, and E. F. Wood, 2013: The influence of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Drought over the Eastern United States (1980-2007). Journal of Climate, 26, 3067-3086, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00244.1
16. Pan, M., X. Yuan, and E. F. Wood, 2013: A Probabilistic Framework for Assessing Drought Recovery. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(14), 3637-3642, doi:10.1002/grl.50728
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1. Yuan, X., Z. Xie, and M. Liang, 2008: Spatiotemporal prediction of shallow water table depths in continental China. Water Resources Research, 44, W04414, doi:10.1029/2006WR005453