DOI Number:10.1080/02626667.2025.2606159

Abstract:The hydroclimate of Southeast Asia (SEA) exhibits a robust connection with variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, our understanding of how ENSO will shape the future hydroclimate of this region remains largely uncertain. Here we evaluated the changes in the likelihood of ENSO-related impacts on SEA hydroclimate throughout the 21st century, utilizing data from the Coupled Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model outputs. Our findings indicate that the impacts of ENSO on annual and seasonal precipitation, evaporation, runoff, soil moisture, and near-surface air temperature are anticipated to become more pronounced over mainland SEA and parts of insular SEA. Our results provide evidence indicating a possible intensification of ENSO-driven hydroclimatic impacts on SEA in the 21st century. These findings elucidate the evolving role of ENSO in shaping SEA’s hydroclimate patterns, underscoring the urgency for proactive, tailored adaptive strategies to address regionally specific impacts of shifting ENSO-SEA relationships.

Discipline:Natural Science

Translation or Not:no

Date of Publication:2025-12-18

Publication links:https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2025.2606159